For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. Geography still plays a very important part in war. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? (including Australia). By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. Nuh still something wrong. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. Its attempts to economically coerce Australia into its geopolitical orbit should disturb. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. [10] Angus Madisson. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. *chuckle*. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Beyond incompetence and corruption Untroubled by the burdens of either wit or intelligence the embaldened tubermensch who, for now, leads the, Alan Tudge is leaving Parliament. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. War is a fools game and China knows it. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Your email address will not be published. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Historical Statistics. Read more. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. [11] GALLUPWorld. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Everyone is doing it hard at present. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. !! One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. they wont need to invade, they will own us. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. By Alan Dupont. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. I find this piece troubling. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. great commentary, thankyou for your input one and all. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. [9] Ezra Vogel. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Australia cut. The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. Something went wrong, please try again later. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? Try again. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. At any rate Australia is in trouble. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. Don't miss a thing! I kind of see it from the opposite angle. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Based on history, a war is in the making. Taiwanese . Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. What the hell have we done? Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. After all its our back yard. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. God help our descendents. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. 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